A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
