Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
